Rep. John Faso is the 3rd most vulnerable House incumbent in 2018. Democrats are poised to field a candidate with local roots to challenge Faso, who voted for the GOP health care plan. Iraq War veteran Pat Ryan … [is a] top candidate.
A year out from Election Day, eight of the top 10 most vulnerable House incumbents are Republicans. These are the members least likely to return to Congress in 2019.
Twenty-three Republicans sit in districts Hillary Clinton won last fall, but only four of them make the top 10. Two Democrats, both in districts President Donald Trump won, take two spots near the bottom. GOP strategists admit that if they can’t pass a tax overhaul, more Republicans will be in trouble because the party risks lower turnout from a disappointed base.
Democrats have historical trends on their side, and they’ve got energy — with a surge of candidates raising real money. But theirs is a tall order: They must gain 24 seats to win the majority. And the competitiveness of many of their targeted races will depend on which candidates emerge from potentially divisive primaries.
This is just a snapshot of the overall House landscape. Open seats, which include pickup opportunities for both parties, are not part of this ranking.
1. Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA-49)
2. Rep. Jason Lewis (R-MN-02)
3. Rep. John Faso (R-NY-19)
On the surface, Faso might not look vulnerable with Trump carrying the New York district by 7 points and Faso winning his first term by 8 points last fall. But the central New York district voted twice for Obama, so Democrats see an opportunity here. The past two cycles, Democrats have run candidates who moved into the district to run for Congress. But this cycle, Democrats are poised to field a candidate with local roots to challenge Faso, who voted for the GOP health care plan. Iraq War veteran Pat Ryan and lawyer Antonio Delgado have emerged as the top candidates in the crowded field, both outraising Faso in the third fundraising quarter. Delgado even has more cash on hand than the incumbent.
4. Rep. Rod Blum (R-IA-01)
5. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA-48)
6. Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-VA-10)
7. Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY-22)
8. Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ-01)
9. Rep. Rick Nolan (D-MN-08)
10. Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX-23)